What would be the most probable route for the Ukrainian Armed Forces to enter Russian territory via the Kursk region? What are the reasons behind this?

The most likely path for the Ukrainian Armed Forces into the Kursk region is where Russian troops are either absent or where their commanders opt not to resist.

In the Kursk region, there are almost no professional “contract troops.” Instead, the area is defended mainly by units made up of conscripts—18- to 19-year-old boys serving their mandatory one-year term. These draftees have essentially been abandoned for the past four days, left without communication, food, or water. Although their commanders instructed them to “hold their position,” conscripts aren’t meant for combat roles.

Complicating matters further, death payouts of 5 million rubles are only allocated for soldiers deployed in the so-called "Special Military Operation" zones on occupied Ukrainian territory. Since the troops in the Kursk region aren’t officially in a war zone, they receive no compensation for injuries or deaths and are also excluded from the monthly wages of 200,000 rubles ($2,400) that combat soldiers receive.

As a result, many Russian commanders prefer to surrender with their “group of teenagers in uniform” rather than engage battle-hardened, experienced Ukrainian units.

Reportedly, small groups of the Ukrainian forces moved as far as 45 km in depth at some directions, towards strategic targets. They avoid battles and move forward where it’s easier to get through.

And the main group of Ukrainian forces is moving steadily with all the logistics after them, clearing the islands of resistance of scattered Russian units.

Captured Russian soldiers.

It seems that over 300 Russian soldiers have already surrendered, presenting a logistical challenge for the Ukrainians. They need transport to move these prisoners back to Ukrainian-held territory, but trucks and vehicles are currently in high demand to support ongoing offensive operations.

Commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Syrskyi, shared a photo from “the area near the offensive operations.”

It’s clear the Ukrainian commanders have a strategy — in fact, they likely have several — and they are carefully choosing the path that offers the greatest advantage given the current circumstances.

Ultimately, only they know the full scope of their plan.

We’ll just have to wait and see how it unfolds.